Will you ever afford a house?

A typical house, measured in years of a typical family's pay, from 1960 to today, in the United States and six counties. Then today's math with your own numbers: the monthly bill, the income a lender wants to see and the years to save a down payment. It starts with the numbers from our Episode 6 video, checked . Change anything.

Episode 6Where the numbers come from

1Your numbers

Place
Counties keep the same borders since 1960, so the years compare like with like.
Your house and pay
Starts at the typical home and the typical family's pay in the place you pick (Census, 2024).
The loan and saving
30-year fixed loan. Tax and insurance start at the typical amounts for the place.

2The answer

Years of pay for a typical house

How we calculate

    3Where every number comes from

    RECEIPTDefault values and sources, checked
    • 1960 and 1970, counties: County and City Data Book Consolidated File, County Data 1947–1977 (National Archives NAID 639129): median value of owner-occupied homes and median family income (incomes are for the year before each census)
    • 1980 to 2005–09, counties: Census Bureau, USA Counties: median home value 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2005–2009 (ACS 5-year); median family income 1979, 1989, 1999, 2005–2009
    • United States: Census Bureau, Historical Census of Housing tables (median home value 1960–2000); median family income for 1960 from the Current Population Survey (FRED MEFAINUSA646N), for 1969–2009 from USA Counties
    • 2024: Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024 1-year: median home value (B25077), median family income (B19113), median real estate taxes paid (B25103). Taxes are top-coded at $10,001 in the survey, so Santa Clara County's is a floor
    • Home insurance: ACS 2024 PUMS, average paid by owners with a mortgage, by state; the US figure is the average of the states weighted by those owners
    • Mortgage rates: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 30-year fixed (FRED MORTGAGE30US): annual averages for history (the survey starts in April 1971, so 1970 uses the 1971 average); today 7.40%, Oct 15, 2026
    • The 28% rule: the lender's classic front-end ratio: mortgage, property tax and insurance at most 28% of gross pay

    For education, not financial advice.